The Future · Emerging Technology
The Coming Age
Artificial intelligence, transhumanism, fusion power, and the technologies now barreling toward us faster than most people have noticed. This wing is where the deep past finally meets the century we are actually going to have to live through.
Verified
Credible
Speculative
Dubious
High (Tier 1 to 2); the ignition result, the JET and Wendelstein 7-X records, and ITER's specifications and status Tier 1; the engineering critiques and the private sector's funding totals Tier 2, with every company target date attributed to that company; aneutronic fusion, the compact-device bet, and Helion's commercial target Tier 3; cold fusion refused at Tier 4
The Star in a Bottle: The Race to Ignite Fusion
A laser shot in December 2022 got more energy out of the fuel than the light put in. The first true ignition, the 300-megajoule caveat, and the machines still being built.
High (Tier 1 to 2); the AGI arguments and timeline estimates Tier 2, each attributed to whoever made it; consciousness, mythological parallels, and the Fermi Paradox connection Tier 3; fringe claims refused at Tier 4
The Alignment Problem: Building a Mind We Cannot Outthink
Can a system that out-reasons its makers be built to want what they want? The control problem, the evidence for and against alarm, and where the field genuinely splits.
High (Tier 1 to 2); the quantum foundations, the four working hardware platforms, the dated milestones and the published algorithms Tier 1, with Google's and IBM's competing classical-time estimates stated as the contested claims they are; Mikhail Dyakonov's skeptical position Tier 2, carried without a citable venue; Microsoft's topological-qubit announcement Tier 3, disputed by named physicists
The Quantum Computer: Computing With the Impossible
Sycamore, Jiuzhang, Condor, Willow: the milestones are real and dated. The machine that beats a classical computer at something anybody needed is not here yet.