RESEARCH BASE
Search 3,721 documents across 34 fields — every claim tier-rated by evidence
3,633 are the core, quality-scored corpus (34 lettered sections — see How We Work); the remaining 88 are cross-corpus synthesis documents (68 InterDocs, 12 Connections, 8 Theories) also indexed here.
36 results for "survival probability" — page 1 of 2
ZA_1_24 — Quantum Zeno Effect
The quantum Zeno effect (QZE) is the remarkable phenomenon whereby frequent measurements of a quantum system can inhibit its evolution — effectively "freezing" a quantum state by repeatedly confirming that it has not yet
V_4_25 — Bayesian Inference: Probability as Rational Belief Updating
Bayesian inference — the mathematical framework for updating beliefs in light of evidence using Bayes' theorem — has become one of the most powerful and contested ideas in modern science. Named after Reverend Thomas Baye
V_4_03 — Geometric Probability and Buffon's Needle
Geometric probability assigns probabilities to random geometric events — needle drops, random points in regions, random lines intersecting figures — formalizing questions that blend chance with spatial structure. Buffon'
V_3_01 — Statistics & Probability: Pascal to Bayes
Probability and statistics — the mathematics of uncertainty — emerged as formal disciplines from the Pascal-Fermat correspondence (1654) on the "problem of points" (how to divide stakes in an interrupted game of chance),
G_2_03 — Bayesian Reasoning and Archaeological Inference
Bayesian reasoning — the systematic updating of probabilities for hypotheses as new evidence is acquired — has transformed archaeology, chronology, and the evaluation of disputed historical claims since the 1990s. At its
Y_5_13 — Starvation and Dehydration: Cognitive Effects of Deprivation States
Starvation and dehydration — states of severe and prolonged nutritional and fluid deprivation — produce a characteristic and well-documented progression of cognitive, perceptual, and emotional alterations that constitute
Y_2_10 — Drowning and Near-Drowning: Aquatic Altered Consciousness
Drowning — defined by the WHO (2002, revised 2005) as "the process of experiencing respiratory impairment from submersion/immersion in liquid" — is one of the leading causes of accidental death worldwide (~236,000 deaths
V_3_14 — Stochastic Processes: Random Walks, Markov Chains, and Brownian Motion
Stochastic processes — mathematical models of systems evolving randomly over time — provide the essential framework for understanding phenomena where uncertainty is intrinsic: the jittery motion of pollen grains in water
V_3_21 — Bayesian Statistics Revolution
Bayesian statistics — the framework for updating probability estimates as new evidence is acquired, grounded in Bayes' theorem — has undergone a dramatic resurgence since the late 20th century, transforming from a margin
U_3_11 — Board Games and Games of Strategy
Board games — structured games played on a marked surface (board) with pieces, dice, cards, or tokens according to defined rules — are among the oldest and most culturally revealing human artifacts. Ancient games: the Ro
E_4_25 — Bayesian Age Modeling: Statistical Frameworks for Archaeological Chronology
Bayesian age modeling — the application of Bayesian statistical inference to combine radiocarbon dates with prior archaeological knowledge (stratigraphy, typology, historical constraints) to produce refined chronological
J_4_01 — Trepanation and Ancient Neurosurgery
This document examines Trepanation and Ancient Neurosurgery, a topic within the Ancient Technology research area. Key areas of investigation include Definition and Terminology, Antiquity and Scope, The Peruvian Concentra
TH_06 — The Dislocated Consciousness Hypothesis
Almost nobody seriously doubts that people experience ghosts — the felt presence, the figure on the stair, the certainty of being watched. The real question is what produces those experiences, and the honest answer is th
INTERDOC — Archaic Knowledge Continuity: Transmission Pathways Across Civilizational Transitions
This cross-section synthesis document traces how specific technical, cosmological, and medical knowledge traditions survived, transformed, or were independently rediscovered across major civilizational transitions. It ma
O_1_02 — Magnetosphere, Solar Activity, and Earth's Shield
Earth's magnetic field is an invisible shield that makes complex life on the surface possible — without it, solar wind would strip away the atmosphere and sterilize the planet, as happened to Mars ~3.8 billion years ago
ZD_1_13 — Kolmogorov Complexity and Algorithmic Information Theory
Kolmogorov complexity (also called algorithmic complexity, descriptive complexity, or program-size complexity) — the length of the shortest computer program (on a fixed universal Turing machine) that produces a given str
Y_5_06 — Extreme Environments, Isolation, and Consciousness
Extreme environments and prolonged isolation produce distinctive altered states of consciousness — hallucinations, dissociation, time distortion, the sensation of an unseen companion, and profound shifts in self-identity
Y_2_03 — Reincarnation Research — Stevenson, Tucker, Past-Life Memories
Reincarnation research — the systematic, empirical investigation of claims that individuals (typically young children) possess verified memories of previous lives — represents one of the most methodologically rigorous pr
H_3_16 — The Classics Canon: What Was Selected, What Was Lost
Of the vast literary output of the ancient Greek and Roman world — estimated at tens of thousands of texts — only a tiny fraction survives. The ancient classics canon as we know it is not a representative sample of ancie
P_1_06 — Personal Identity and Continuity
Personal identity — the question of what makes you you over time, and under what conditions you would cease to exist — is one of philosophy's most ancient and practically urgent problems. The core puzzle is persistence:
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